WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast August 9, 2018

Prepare for $90 oil after sanctions against Iran take effect – analyst

China Stringer Network Reuters

Oil prices rose about 1 percent on Tuesday after USA sanctions on Iranian goods went into effect, intensifying concerns that sanctions on Iranian oil, expected in November, could cause supply shortages. All countries must stop importing Iranian oil by then, the State Department said in June, or face sanctions.

The crude oil imports maintained the same levels during the last two weeks.

The U.S. benchmark crude has traded below $70 a barrel this month as the U.S.

The first round of renewed USA sanctions will take effect on Tuesday with the harshest sanctions, potentially targeting Iran's oil industry, expected to return in early November. This first round of sanctions will target Iran's automotive sector, its gold trade, and the Iranian rial. It's not clear how long the temporary halt will last, but one of the sources said Unipec has no new bookings of United States crude until at least October.

Futures were little changed in NY, following a one per cent advance over the previous two sessions.

The prices of both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by over 2.5 percent on Wednesday morning following the reported draw of crude oil inventory by U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Oil prices rose after the sanctions went into affect, but gains were limited as market participants lacked clear signs on just how much the proposed oil sanctions would affect Iranian crude output, Kilduff said.

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The U.S. has restored sanctions against Iran as as President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose more penalties on the country's oil sales in November. China's foreign ministry on Wednesday stated that Beijing will continue its business with Iran as does not violate any UNSC resolution.

Looking ahead to 2020-21, Della Vigna anxious that the impacts of the slowing pace of new projects will start to be felt, and US shale will begin to decline; however, he said now is a ideal opportunity for "big oil" firms to negotiate better tax terms with governments and "do more activity - that doesn't necessarily mean more money".

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said his country opposes sanctions on Iran, but will abide by them to protect its own interests.

"Gasoline demand has been one of the main bullish stories in the oil market and if that demand is slipping off a little bit, maybe we're seeing reluctance to higher prices", said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation are already calling the shots, making the big decisions on oil output bilaterally.

According to OPEC sources, top crude exporter Saudi Arabia pumped around 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, down about 200,000 bpd from a month earlier.

Shale output helped to US production over 10 million bpd this year for the first time since the 1970s.

US sanctions against Iran, which shipped out nearly three million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, officially came into effect at 0401 GMT (12:01am US Eastern time) on Tuesday.

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