The national hurricane center (NHC) said Sunday, June 2, in the Gulf of Campeche Mexico with frequent showers and thunderstorms. It has a 60% chance of development during the next two days and between a 40% and 60% chance of development during the next five days.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin began Saturday, 1 June, and ends 30 November, with the traditional peak occurring from August to October. However tropical moisture and heavy rain will likely move into the lower Mississippi River valley by Wednesday and Thursday.
The disturbance will still slowly move northwest and mainly be a rainmaker for Eastern Mexico.
If the circulation should sufficiently organized, the National Hurricane Center will designate it a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Barry, depending on the strength of the top winds in the system.
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Some models, however, have the storm taking a more northward track, hugging the Mexico and South Texas coast before turning toward the northeast and potentially making landfall in Louisiana.
A frontal boundary will stall in the area by mid week, helping to draw up this deep moisture, and possibly produce some heavy rainfall in or near the region.
At the very least it is a reminder that hurricane season has started.